When History Hung by a Thread
Rea,
You know how in history books, big events seem to happen in a straight line, as if they were always going to happen that way? The truth is much messier and depends on tiny moments of chance that could have changed everything.
Take World War I for example. We’re taught that it started because Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated. But what most history books don’t tell you is how many coincidences had to line up perfectly for this assassination to occur - and how easily it might never have happened at all.
In November 1913, the Archduke (next in line to rule the Austro-Hungarian Empire) nearly died during a hunting trip in England when a servant tripped in the snow, accidentally firing a shotgun. The shots missed by inches. Had the gun barrel moved just one degree, the assassination that supposedly triggered World War I would never have occurred. Of course, the tensions in Europe might still have erupted into war for some other reason, but history would have unfolded very differently.
Seven months later in Sarajevo, an assassin threw a bomb at the Archduke’s car. It bounced off and exploded, injuring bystanders but leaving him unharmed. Instead of fleeing to safety, the Archduke decided to visit the hospital to see the wounded.
This unplanned detour led to a fateful wrong turn. When the driver tried to reverse, he stalled the engine. By incredible coincidence, the car stopped directly in front of Gavrilo Princip, another assassin who had given up and was getting a sandwich. Seizing this unexpected opportunity, Princip fired twice, killing the Archduke and his wife Sophie.
These shots triggered a chain reaction that led to World War I, which redrew the map of Europe and set the stage for World War II. All because of chance moments: a hunting accident that missed, a bomb that bounced, a wrong turn, a stalled car, and an assassin who happened to be in exactly the right spot at the right moment.
History isn’t like a train running on tracks that can only go one way. It’s more like a leaf floating down a stream, where tiny ripples, gusts of wind, or even a single raindrop can completely change its path.
Love, Abba
P.S. Next time you read about a big historical event, try to imagine all the tiny moments of chance that had to happen just right for things to turn out the way they did. What might our world look like today if the Archduke’s car hadn’t stalled?
